Prediction-market entry comparison

Enter the complete x-plus-c file, whose embedded strategy SHA-256 is abb152716f4e3db6981c84b61df1bd38e1365273a6afa44c76bc8de6888a28fd. This is a judgment from the supplied results: it has the largest reported overall gain among the full-size holdouts, not a demonstrated statistically significant lead over x-plus-a. No new hybrid was tested. [C]

Sources: X, A, B, C are the supplied item results (also supplied as .imd/reads/artifacts/item-<name>). Input SHA-256 digests, in order: 746c992ba19ff04fadc6348928463c23475214692a05333cd631da97bf0a40e4, b301b1e9462d9e9b430d3fbf0eadbbe9659b6308873a0c91434cfd256dc5d606, 79af781a0f1882f2a291e045f803714b52128f9938480d54fb43360417b381ac, and 6c589a688bc0b5a5ddc9c2d70f48c2d81ea236b49b3ff9df3b697e2edc271feb. Bracket labels below refer to those results, including their changes, by_spread, diff, seconds, holdout and tried fields. These are reported measurements, not independently rerun simulations.

Measurements

One row per item. All numeric measurements below reproduce the input values without rounding. In trials, each entry is change/spread: gain ± SE; first half / second half; keep or drop; retail / arb. Trials measure the incremental change against the currently retained file, not necessarily the untouched start. In holdout, entries are spread (runs): mean difference ± SE; retail / arb, followed by all runs. Differences are frozen-file minus start; retail and arb are paired mean edge contributions. SE is the reported sample standard deviation of paired total-edge differences divided by the square root of the run count; separate component SEs and half SEs were not supplied. [X,A,B,C]

Item / source	Each trial: gain, uncertainty, halves, decision, components	Frozen holdout differences from start	Timing and absolute holdout edge
x-cancel [X]; 800 runs/trial	cancel/2: 0.23018517069912495 ± 0.4349111336136045; -0.023505375267999205 / 0.48387571666624907; drop; -0.28687999838912503 / 0.5170651691019997cancel/3: 0.88821470083825 ± 0.23726757000129986; 1.0516957176237502 / 0.72473368405275; keep; -0.3297190039637498 / 1.21793370483375	spread1 (743): 0.0 ± 0.0; 0.0 / 0.0spread2 (729): 0.0 ± 0.0; 0.0 / 0.0spread3 (738): 0.9280571029257452 ± 0.1412520833151064; -0.1482219420548789 / 1.0762790449701902spread4 (790): 0.0 ± 0.0; 0.0 / 0.0All: 0.2283020473197333 ± 0.03548887083664417; -0.03646259774550021 / 0.2647646450626668	Seconds start / file: 177.92828781506978 / 176.06567618297413.Absolute mean / retail / arb: 101.32607035479214 / 124.2202947705724 / -22.894224415811532. Failures: 0.
x-plus-a [A]; 800 runs/trial	cancel/1: -0.7203009351336249 ± 1.1770745631781054; -0.4620052963339995 / -0.9785965739332504; drop; -3.84660569595975 / 3.126304760812125cancel/2: 0.26932189009975 ± 0.43464379263335456; -0.021439635416499483 / 0.5600834156159994; drop; -0.28719045920124997 / 0.556512349314125cancel/3: 0.8766277509761248 ± 0.2374497681554164; 1.0027301705107496 / 0.7505253314415; keep; -0.36628883705875004 / 1.2429165880657498cancel/4: 0.5278417429512492 ± 0.14303208986140722; 0.4390302480424995 / 0.6166532378599988; keep; -0.19903470388375055 / 0.7268764468423753cross/1: 1.3820987497428752 ± 0.5807563840414894; 1.3950247463615 / 1.3691727531242501; keep; -0.6323682442439995 / 2.0144669939886253cross/2: 0.5229960566512495 ± 0.10610274268281601; 0.5257728375702497 / 0.520219275732249; keep; 0.38943116388137516 / 0.13356489275937475cross/3: -0.056250831019250144 ± 0.24099464600087375; -0.22434547835474997 / 0.11184381631624968; drop; 0.2048628849332502 / -0.26111371596787497postjump/1: -0.4588406177068751 ± 0.5068429409906539; 0.07764371148874963 / -0.9953249469025; drop; -0.0163118339716254 / -0.4425287837370002premium/4: -0.22093545084062516 ± 0.1927268245959664; -0.549880503568751 / 0.10800960188750068; drop; 1.495208401828001 / -1.7161438526610002deadband/1: 1.2263334571781248 ± 1.0291829002188; 0.6616665568415001 / 1.7910003575147497; keep; 1.032312912442625 / 0.19402054472512503deadband/3: 0.6010946461928749 ± 0.4675669675151634; 0.8581907907605002 / 0.3439985016252497; keep; 1.7243558987471246 / -1.1232612525523749deadband/4: 0.47632252185762547 ± 0.28329259855611794; 0.5238393023645002 / 0.4288057413507507; keep; 2.13032310496075 / -1.6540005831121254	spread1 (743): -0.2054256911981163 ± 0.810667600531215; 0.11180005670215393 / -0.3172257478924629spread2 (729): 0.526070196753498 ± 0.07642157522926436; 0.323316946606173 / 0.20275325014691364spread3 (738): 1.1369073706947164 ± 0.3248371095623694; 1.4943678930253377 / -0.35746052233536546spread4 (790): 1.2690688747881016 ± 0.41837430080342203; 1.8703311907337967 / -0.6012623159730379All: 0.6908253118428002 ± 0.24338082100944683; 0.966390213979333 / -0.2755649021430665	Seconds start / file: 116.56159557867795 / 125.34774165088311.Absolute mean / retail / arb: 101.78859361931521 / 125.22314758229723 / -23.434553963017265. Failures: 0.
x-plus-b [B]; 60 runs/trial	cancel/1: 0.912588575606668 ± 1.0493186178104663; 1.8504373306966673 / -0.025260179483331424; drop; -1.7338664543033342 / 2.6464550298849994cancel/2: 1.7241506522416679 ± 0.8508291643695077; 1.7231918929466687 / 1.7251094115366667; keep; 1.034481544791668 / 0.6896691074616667cancel/3: 1.1617802122516652 ± 0.29938730641386047; 1.346240607236664 / 0.9773198172666665; keep; -0.04863847847000121 / 1.21041869082cancel/4: 0.6617967417166656 ± 0.22242217525405508; 1.0164235693233301 / 0.30716991411000105; keep; -0.02683471165666577 / 0.6886314533916671cut/1: 0.9117586711700002 ± 0.4251210842263569; 0.28717695470333504 / 1.5363403876366653; keep; -0.510408328808334 / 1.4221669999816662cut/2: -1.2971878382733377 ± 2.6816372309720675; -0.4241754506633358 / -2.17020022588334; drop; 1.8969880253783336 / -3.1941758636916666cut/3: -0.23459444702499632 ± 0.3859650793386757; -0.32447757890999623 / -0.14471131513999644; drop; 0.5263163979283362 / -0.7609108449299999cut/4: 0.5905774347783339 ± 0.6274541668332343; 0.9316647218533332 / 0.24949014770333464; keep; 0.7298697114799996 / -0.13929227675333364postjump/1: 0.13345613000500148 ± 0.07131413520148466; 0.12100198562666692 / 0.14591027438333606; keep; -0.012568258224999823 / 0.1460243882333334premium/4: -0.35600951898 ± 0.5583322931519599; -0.46798300992000075 / -0.24403602803999921; drop; 0.9706088759133321 / -1.3266183948699999deadband/1: 0.050356702149999516 ± 0.5076424483829126; -0.03982325857333354 / 0.14053666287333258; drop; 0.6246615921800008 / -0.5743048900433337deadband/3: 0.9500827070633351 ± 0.5006065463763689; 1.6958125560000001 / 0.20435285812667; keep; 1.3851087364183334 / -0.4350260293583333deadband/4: 1.5407141468383345 ± 0.9306944486442865; -0.6817542714399994 / 3.7631825651166686; drop; 2.8290632546399985 / -1.2883491077566667	spread1 (259): 1.399831089200387 ± 0.7481366645019447; -2.6003472166150585 / 4.000178305783399spread2 (225): 0.6261861045968888 ± 0.1840136725526742; -0.41990643432400016 / 1.046092538943111spread3 (260): 1.1310493997976931 ± 0.5088232350536973; 1.4952188650223068 / -0.3641694652319224spread4 (256): 1.6767606350285167 ± 1.022897235587338; 0.26243684334882766 / 1.414323791637891All: 1.2267716921519007 ± 0.3537142508992249; -0.3120281400231005 / 1.5387998321591005	Seconds start / file: 157.1656849384308 / 160.84521317481995.Absolute mean / retail / arb: 90.9320907272175 / 114.5758009690896 / -23.6437102419399. Failures: 0.
x-plus-c [C]; 800 runs/trial	deadband/1: 1.95456000048525 ± 1.130810207389846; 1.0139993693862501 / 2.89512063158425; keep; 1.177816300468125 / 0.7767436999981254deadband/3: 0.6127362211706253 ± 0.4064824581431537; 1.0038792547347506 / 0.22159318760650001; keep; 1.5210945617035003 / -0.9083583405225001deadband/4: 0.4844501797157491 ± 0.27850396446170805; 0.48532049053924986 / 0.48357986889224847; keep; 2.1534634983689993 / -1.6690133186573748premium/4: -0.5530713286213749 ± 0.21617909955159165; -0.8362005056520003 / -0.2699421515907495; drop; 1.4942316305030006 / -2.0473029591275postjump/1: 0.17625968372849982 ± 0.19034444428188801; 0.0020865339904996925 / 0.3504328334665; keep; -0.06399796827262438 / 0.2402576520008745cross/1: 0.6063841173272502 ± 0.30209973635958604; 1.0607474269100006 / 0.15202080774449975; keep; -0.754131366606375 / 1.3605154839523752cross/2: 0.5229960566512495 ± 0.10610274268281601; 0.5257728375702497 / 0.520219275732249; keep; 0.38943116388137516 / 0.13356489275937475cross/3: 0.22030573250837393 ± 0.12485051477862424; 0.20804995107249916 / 0.23256151394424865; keep; -0.0004105674983748409 / 0.22071629999475006cancel/1: -1.6540003131891254 ± 0.8813897341805681; -1.7236403204212507 / -1.584360305957; drop; -4.340088898846001 / 2.6860885856342502cancel/2: 0.10727170822175053 ± 0.4637861881671467; -0.23946692572349956 / 0.4540103421670006; drop; -0.2686360459292497 / 0.37590775416250005cancel/3: 0.6790491505312505 ± 0.16383802326047398; 0.6754262862287504 / 0.6826720148337506; keep; -0.00045159062162509534 / 0.6795007411737499cancel/4: 0.5197140850931254 ± 0.11931601230132634; 0.47754905986774987 / 0.5618791103185011; keep; -0.2221750972919995 / 0.741889182387625	spread1 (743): -0.21789687315773912 ± 0.8156780115426311; -0.5946258066465676 / 0.3767289334952895spread2 (729): 0.526070196753498 ± 0.07642157522926436; 0.323316946606173 / 0.20275325014691364spread3 (738): 1.465977865198375 ± 0.3010164662430712; 1.738342222878319 / -0.2723643576861786spread4 (790): 1.2690688747881016 ± 0.41837430080342203; 1.8703311907337967 / -0.6012623159730379All: 0.768687957425367 ± 0.2426212765874633; 0.8514497603004664 / -0.0827618028823332	Seconds start / file: 167.0329424010124 / 170.58695952803828.Absolute mean / retail / arb: 101.86645626489778 / 125.10820712861836 / -23.241750863756533. Failures: 0.

What the comparisons establish

Cancel on the start file: the clean cancel-only experiment reports spread 2 gain 0.23018517069912495 ± 0.4349111336136045, with halves -0.023505375267999205 / 0.48387571666624907, so it was dropped. Spread 3 gained 0.88821470083825 ± 0.23726757000129986, halves 1.0516957176237502 / 0.72473368405275, and stayed. Its frozen spread-3 holdout gain was 0.9280571029257452 ± 0.1412520833151064. The spread-2 frozen difference is 0.0, because the patch was removed, not because cancel was measured to have zero effect. [X]

The goal quotes +1.11 for each of spreads 2 and 3 on the older file. Thus the direct start-file experiment shows a much smaller, uncertain spread-2 benefit and a positive but smaller spread-3 estimate; the old gains do not transfer unchanged. The older claim has no supplied SE or matched raw runs, so this is not a significance test of attenuation. X; requester goal, cancel artifact

Held in every file that tried them: cancel/spread 3 (X,A,B,C), cancel/spread 4 (A,B,C), cross/spreads 1 and 2 (A,C), and deadband/spread 3 (A,B,C) were always retained. Cut/spreads 1 and 4 stayed in their sole tester B, which is no independent replication. Cancel/spread 1 and premium/spread 4 were always dropped. Cancel/spread 2 stayed only in B; cross/spread 3 only in C; postjump/spread 1 in B,C but not A; deadband/spreads 1 and 4 in A,C but not B. “Held” means passing both selection halves, not guaranteed holdout improvement. [X,A,B,C]

Order matters within a spread. X tested cancel only. A ordered cancel, cross, postjump, premium, deadband. B substituted cut for cross and ordered cancel, cut, postjump, premium, deadband. C ordered deadband, premium, postjump, cross, cancel. Cross/spread 3 was rejected after cancel in A but retained before cancel in C. These are conditional comparisons; the results do not isolate order as the sole cause. The goal's additivity across different spreads does not imply additivity among patches within one spread. [X,A,B,C; requester goal]

C retains deadband/spreads 1,3,4; postjump/spread 1; cross/spreads 1,2,3; cancel/spreads 3,4. It rejects premium and cancel/spreads 1,2, and excludes cut. A retains cancel/spreads 3,4, cross/spreads 1,2 and deadband/spreads 1,3,4. B retains cancel/spreads 2,3,4, cut/spreads 1,4, postjump/spread 1 and deadband/spread 3. X retains only cancel/spread 3. [X,A,B,C]

Reliability and entry risks

X,A,C report full selection trials and paired holdouts on seeds 170000 through 172999, frozen before holdout. B instead used seeds 170000 through 170999 and only 60 selection runs per trial, split into halves of 30. B explicitly reports reducing counts for time rather than the prescribed calibration threshold. Its larger overall difference cannot establish superiority over C on the full holdout: the windows and uncertainty differ. B's absolute edge also must not be compared directly with the other absolute means. [X,A,B,C]

All four report the scorer-check mean 108.63974289615767 on the earlier reference file, over 600 runs from seed 1000; this is calibration, not the start file's holdout score. The goal's board scores 110.21 and 110.69 are context, not forecasts for these files. X,A,B,C; requester goal; earlier reference

Each timing batch covers 200 simulations per strategy. X,A,C report serial timing in one process; B reports the files running concurrently in separate processes. Use each row's own start/file seconds, not absolute seconds across items, as the timing comparison; B's setup further limits comparability. [X,A,B,C]

Source caveat for A: the task flags two of A's sources as failing reread validation (unavailable or not supporting the quoted passage). The supplied result does not identify those sources or passages. A's tried claim that all source quotes matched is therefore not reliable source-validation evidence. Its figures above remain attributed local result claims, not externally corroborated measurements; source-dependent claims about faithful porting deserve less weight. This weakens A’s evidence without proving its figures false. [A; requester source-validation notice]

C's spread-1 holdout difference is -0.21789687315773912 ± 0.8156780115426311, despite both selection halves passing. A also lost on spread 1. No result establishes a guaranteed leaderboard win, and no raw paired C-minus-A comparison or SE is supplied. Selecting a new per-spread hybrid after inspecting these holdouts would require fresh validation; do not silently substitute one for the frozen recommended file. [A,C]

All four report zero holdout failures, standard-library/simulator-only strategies and no key requirement; these are item reports, not an independent security audit. X reports exact unchanged-spread equality checks; B reports only a small all-flags-off check, while A,C say every spread retained a patch so their conditional untouched-spread check did not apply. Cancel must suppress every placement on the affected side, cancel resting orders and clear affected memory; the items report doing so, with focused checks in X,A,C. No supplied result identifies a concrete entry-blocking defect, but B's reduced validation and A's failed source validation make them weaker entry choices. The operator should extract the complete code field from C's supplied JSON and verify its stated hash, preserving its frozen behavior; manual entry needs no account key. [X,A,B,C]