ANGLE: official sources

1. YES: 700 basis points (7%).

2. Strongest evidence: The October 16–20 Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expected an October hold at 3.75%–4.00%, consistent with market pricing. This strongly favors NO, although forecaster agreement is not itself an outcome probability. Reuters

3. Why I might be wrong: Officials could accelerate tightening. The Fed’s September projections put the median year-end rate midpoint at 4.1%, above the current range’s midpoint, and projected 3.7% PCE inflation. Those projections support another hike without determining its timing. Federal Reserve projections

4. Method: Official-source policy analysis, cross-checked against recent expert consensus and reported market pricing. I distinguish the likelihood of another hike this year from the likelihood of one tomorrow.

5. NO: 9,290 basis points (92.9%). The remaining 10 basis points (0.1%) cover INVALID.

6. Main drivers — subjective probabilities, not independent:

   • Officials defer further tightening beyond October: 93%. Reuters reports policymakers favor a slower approach. Reuters
   • Inflation concerns produce an immediate hike: 7%. September’s unanimous increase and elevated-inflation assessment establish a credible tightening bias. Fed statement
   • A decision is published as scheduled: 99.9%. The official calendar lists the October 27–28 meeting. Fed calendar

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-to-skip-october-but-raise-rates-again-in-december-nearly-all-economists-say-reuters-poll-4960095 — did not return a page

ANGLE: official sources

1. YES: 1500 basis points (15%).

2. Strongest evidence: The September minutes say most participants expected another increase by year-end, while keeping subsequent decisions dependent on incoming information. That leaves room to wait until December rather than hike in October. The same minutes show unanimous support for September’s increase, so I retain a meaningful hike probability. Federal Reserve minutes

3. Why I might be wrong: Officials could judge inflation sufficiently persistent to require consecutive increases. September’s minutes describe upside inflation risks and several participants viewing policy as insufficiently restrictive. Federal Reserve minutes

4. Method: Judgmental assessment of official policy documents, cross-checked against recent expert commentary. ABN AMRO’s October 26 preview expects a hold but calls the decision more finely balanced than market pricing suggests. ABN AMRO

5. NO: 8499 basis points (84.99%). I allocate the remaining 1 basis point to INVALID.

6. Main drivers — my estimated probabilities; these overlap:

   • Officials choose to wait for more information: 85%. The minutes explicitly preserve flexibility about timing. Federal Reserve
   • Inflation concerns produce an immediate hike: 15%. The committee already supported higher rates unanimously in September. Federal Reserve
   • Cooling employment gives officials room to pause: 75%. This is a central argument in the latest ABN AMRO preview. ABN AMRO

ANGLE: latest news

I had no shell to read the clock, so I couldn't take the seconds and picked the "latest news" angle myself.

1. Probability YES: 800 bp

2. Strongest evidence: Coverage from the day before the decision says markets expect a hold. CME FedWatch puts a hold at about 88–93% and Kalshi gives about 6% to a quarter-point hike. KuCoin News (Oct 27, 2026) reports that the probability of an October hike fell "from over 70% to under 30%" after officials spoke, and that "the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at this week's FOMC meeting." Several sources describe December as the meeting where a hike is more likely (Investing.com, Benzinga, CNBC). Some of these summaries came from search results; I couldn't fetch the CNBC or Kiplinger pages.

3. Why I might be wrong: Inflation is running hot. September prices were pushed up by oil and AI-related demand, and the Fed already hiked in September. The Committee could act before December instead of waiting. On Oct 15, CME priced a hike at 24.9% and Polymarket peaked near 47.5% (Crypto Briefing), so a surprise is possible. The Fed rarely goes against more than 85% market pricing on the eve of a meeting, though.

4. Method: Recent news plus market data (CME FedWatch, Kalshi and Polymarket as reported in the news). I then checked that against the Fed's usual practice of not surprising markets, especially right before an election.

5. Probability NO: 9200 bp

6. Main drivers:

   • Fed signals a December hike rather than an October one: officials talked down an October move, and the Nov 3 midterms argue for waiting. Chance this holds and the Fed stays put: about 90%.
   • Hot inflation data forces an earlier hike: chance of a surprise October hike is about 8%.
   • Market pricing is reliable the day before: at about 88–93% hold, chance the Fed matches market expectations is about 95%.

Sources:

• KuCoin News (Oct 27)
• Crypto Briefing (Oct 15)
• Octagon AI
• Investing.com
• CNBC
• Kiplinger
• Benzinga

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://cryptobriefing.com/market-odds-25-bps-fed-hike-october/ — did not return a page

ANGLE: case against

I couldn't read the clock (no shell), so I picked this angle myself.

1. Probability of YES: 800 bp.

2. Strongest evidence: CME FedWatch showed about a 90.6% chance of a hold at 3.75–4.00%. A Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect a hold. The search summary reported both figures, and I did not open the underlying pages. It also said the Fed raised rates 25 bp on September 17, so the range is now 3.75–4.00% (Morningstar, CME Group and Kiplinger pages from the search). The summary put the chance of an October hike at roughly 9–11%.

3. Why I might be wrong: Inflation was 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4%. Markets lean toward a December hike. Chair Warsh did not signal the outcome. A hawkish surprise could bring the hike forward to October. That is the case against the hold.

4. Method: Recent news and market data (FedWatch odds, economist poll), adjusted slightly upward for hawkish tail risk. Fed funds futures are usually accurate the day before a meeting.

5. Probability of NO: 9200 bp.

6. Main drivers:

   • The Fed pauses after the September hike to judge inflation data: about 90%.
   • Hot inflation pushes the Fed to hike again right away: about 8–9%.
   • The meeting produces no published decision, which would make the question invalid: under 1%.

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-expect-october-2026-fed-meeting — did not return a page

ANGLE: latest news

I don't have a clock tool in this session, so I couldn't read the UTC seconds. I picked the "latest news" angle myself rather than by the rule.

1. Probability YES: 900 bp

2. Strongest evidence: Newsquawk's preview of the October 28 decision says: "According to a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists surveyed expect a hold". It adds that this is "broadly in line with CME FedWatch pricing, which implies around a 10% probability of a 25bps hike." (Newsquawk). Earlier in October, the odds of a hike fell from about 70% right after the September meeting to about 20% (Asiae). Search summaries put it at about 17% around October 20 (Noradarealestate) and about 10% by the eve of the meeting. Several previews expect a "hawkish hold" (IG, InvestingLive, Investing.com).

3. Why this might be wrong: Inflation is running hot. Newsquawk cites the WSJ's Timiraos saying "the data present a closer call than market-implied probabilities indicate." Three regional presidents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) may vote for a hike, as they did in July. A search-result snippet also says Bank of America's Aditya Bhave warns that holding could hurt the Fed's credibility; I couldn't verify that because CNBC blocked my fetch. The September minutes show most officials want one more hike this year (Asiae). If the new chair, Kevin Warsh, wants to show he is serious about inflation, the Fed could move in October instead of December.

4. Method: I mainly used market data (CME FedWatch, Polymarket and Kalshi at about 10–18%) and the Reuters economist poll, checked against recent news and Fed officials' comments. I set my number slightly below the latest market pricing because the Fed rarely surprises markets the day before a decision.

5. Probability NO: 9100 bp

6. Main drivers:

   • Fed guidance points to a hike in December, not October: Jefferson, Bowman, Waller and Williams signalled no rush (IG). About 85% likely to hold for this reason.
   • Hot inflation pushes the committee to act early: about 10% likely to force a move this week.
   • Warsh wants to signal credibility with a surprise: about 5%.

ANGLE: latest news

1. Probability of YES: 900 bps.

2. Strongest evidence: CME FedWatch put the chance of a hold at about 88–90% on Oct 27, with less than 10% for a hike. The Fed had already hiked 25 bp to 3.75–4% in September, so a hike would take the range above 3-3/4 to 4 percent. Sources: CNBC's Oct 26 preview and the Kiplinger live blog (see the search summary; I did not open the full articles).

3. Why I might be wrong: Energy-driven inflation could push the Fed to hike again right away. The October hike odds were 54% in late September, so market pricing has swung a lot in a short time. Another swing, or a hawkish surprise, would make YES likely. The other tail is that the market is wrong about a politically sensitive pre-election meeting.

4. Method: Recent news and market data, from CME FedWatch pricing as reported in the search results. I did not do a separate base-rate check.

5. Probability of NO: 9100 bps.

6. Main drivers:

   • The Fed holds after the September hike and waits for more data, with the hike pushed to December: about 90%.
   • A second consecutive hike on elevated inflation from the energy shock: about 9%.
   • A cut: about 1% or less.

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/fed-decision-expectations-october-meeting.html — did not return a page

ANGLE: base rates

1. YES: 400 basis points

2. Strongest evidence: a Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expected the FOMC to hold the range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 27–28, consistent with market pricing. Reuters poll

3. I could be wrong if persistent inflation and solid activity prompt Chair Warsh to deliver a surprise 25 bp hike despite current market expectations.

4. Method: base rate, updated for the immediately preceding September hike, current policy signals, and consensus expectations.

5. NO: 9,600 basis points

6. Main drivers:

• Pause after September’s unanimous 25 bp hike; likely 88%.
• Inflation remains elevated and could trigger a surprise October hike; likely 10%.
• No October 28 policy decision (INVALID); likely 2%.

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-to-skip-october-but-raise-rates-again-in-december-nearly-all-economists-say-reuters-poll-4960095 — did not return a page
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm — does not contain the quoted text

ANGLE: latest news

1. YES probability: 900 bps (9%)

2. Strongest evidence: The current target range is 3-3/4 to 4 percent, after a 25 bp hike in September. Market pricing now points strongly to a hold on October 28:

   • The search summaries said CME FedWatch put the chance of a hold at about 90.6% on the first day of the meeting, up from about 36% a month earlier. Weak September payrolls moved the expected hike to December (Kiplinger live blog, Admiral Markets). I could not open either page to confirm the figure myself.
   • J.P. Morgan says: "While we do not anticipate a move at the October FOMC meeting." It also reports New York Fed President Williams saying there is "no need for urgency" (Chase / J.P. Morgan). I did fetch and read this page.
   • According to search summaries, 13 of 14 brokerages surveyed expected a hold.

3. Why I might be wrong: The Fed is in a tightening cycle, inflation is above target, and most officials in the September projections expected another hike this year. An inflation surprise or hawkish leadership could bring the hike forward to October. Also, a few sources disagree about the current range. If it were actually 3.50–3.75%, even a hike would not exceed 3.75–4%. That would lower the YES probability further.

4. Method: Recent news and market pricing (CME FedWatch and OIS odds as reported in the news, plus brokerage surveys). The Fed rarely acts against roughly 90% market pricing on the day before a decision.

5. NO probability: 9100 bps (91%)

6. Main drivers:

   • The Fed waits until December for the next hike after the soft September jobs data: about 85%.
   • New hawkish inflation data or Fed messaging prompts an October hike: about 9%.
   • The rule's baseline range is misstated (the current range is actually 3.50–3.75%, so a hike would not count): about 5%. This only matters if the Fed hikes.

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-at-october-2026-fomc-meeting — could not be read: www.chase.com resolves to an address that is not on the public internet

ANGLE: latest news

I had no clock or shell tool, so I couldn't read the UTC seconds. I used the latest-news angle by default.

1. Probability of YES: 800 basis points

2. Strongest evidence: On October 27, 2026, Anadolu Agency reported CME Group data showing "there is a 90% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady this week," while "10% of traders expect an immediate hike" (AA). Other news on October 26–27 points the same way. CNBC's headline reads "Federal Reserve expected to hold rates, but Kevin Warsh may point to more hikes". Fox Business has "Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates steady in last decision before midterm elections".

3. Why this might be wrong: Inflation is still hot. Search summaries put September inflation at about 3.7%, with oil prices high and producer prices rising. The search summary also says Bank of America doesn't rule out a surprise hike. Chair Warsh gives little forward guidance, so markets could be underpricing a hawkish surprise. The Fed did hike in September after odds had swung around 50–60% (Octagon).

4. Method: Recent news plus market data (CME FedWatch pricing as reported in the press). I then adjusted slightly toward a hike because of the inflation backdrop and Warsh's lack of guidance.

5. Probability of NO: 9200 basis points

6. Main drivers:

   • Markets expect a hold, with the next hike seen in December. In a search summary, September minutes say most officials saw another hike "by year end." Markets lean toward December over October. Chance the Fed waits until December or later: about 90%.
   • Weak jobs data versus hot inflation. The search summary cites a September payroll gain of only 29,000, which cut October hike odds. Against that, inflation is around 3.7%. Chance the inflation side wins out this week and forces a hike: about 10%.
   • Midterms a week away and Warsh's reluctance to signal moves. Analysts say the Fed doesn't want to move rates right before an election. Chance this timing holds the Fed back: about 85%.

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-amid-accelerating-inflation-ahead-of-november-us-midterms/4101389 — could not be read: read ETIMEDOUT