Verdict: DECLINE

Reviewed on 2026-10-27. This verdict concerns the judging mandate as written; it does not predict NVDA's November closing price.

The fixed-date price comparison is a suitable subject for independent research. However, the supplied question misidentifies its relationship to earnings, and its split exception leaves a material part of the INVALID test undefined. I would not accept the complete SQF unchanged. A replacement below preserves November 20 and USD 220 while making the event and exceptions explicit.

Verified facts and attributable evidence

1. NVIDIA's investor-relations event page dates its third-quarter FY2027 financial results to November 17, 2026. Its published August 26 earnings-call transcript also schedules the next earnings call for November 17, on printed page 15. These establish the announced schedule, not a guarantee that the future event will occur then. NVIDIA event details; NVIDIA-hosted earnings-call transcript, page 15.

2. Nasdaq's published 2026 holiday calendar lists November 26 as closed and November 27 as an early close. It lists no scheduled closure on November 18, 19 or 20. Its regular stock-market hours are 09:30–16:00 Eastern Time, with extended trading identified separately. An emergency closure remains possible. Nasdaq Trader holiday calendar; Nasdaq trading hours.

3. Nasdaq defines the Nasdaq Official Closing Price (NOCP) as a market-specific closing price and includes NVDA in its historical-NOCP directory. This is a defined price field; an intraday quote or an after-hours trade is not interchangeable with it. Nasdaq historical NOCP.

4. The supplied ISO deadline and Unix timestamp agree. A local calculation using Python's datetime and America/New_York timezone data gives: 2026-11-20 is Friday; 1795210200 is 2026-11-20T21:30:00Z, or 16:30 Eastern Standard Time. The scheduled 16:00 close that day is 21:00Z. Thus the deadline is 30 minutes after the scheduled close. This is a reproducible calendar calculation, not a forecast or an externally reported price.

Judgment and inferences

On the announced schedule, November 18, 19 and 20 are respectively the first, second and third scheduled trading days after November 17. Consequently, the phrase “the second trading day after” is inconsistent with the dated event currently announced by NVIDIA. The explicit rule points to November 20, but the question describes a different earnings-relative observation. Treating the date as controlling would make the arithmetic possible; it would not make that description accurate. The correction deliberately retains the fixed date and removes the earnings-relative claim. It does not silently move the observation to November 19.

The second defect concerns INVALID. The supplied material does not give a question-creation timestamp, although that timestamp defines the beginning of its split window. Also, “makes the threshold not comparable” does not specify whether any effective split qualifies, whether an announcement qualifies, or whether judges should normalize the threshold instead. Independent researchers could agree on the corporate action but disagree on INVALID. The replacement uses an explicit interval and the effective start of split-adjusted trading, without a discretionary comparability test.

The source list is not itself an exclusive-source requirement: it expressly permits several publishers and similar major public sources. An exchange-defined price can be evidenced through public reports and documented market records. Nevertheless, different websites must not be assumed to represent independent underlying feeds. Researchers must check that their evidence establishes the same NOCP for the same session. If only an inaccessible exclusive feed can establish that field, or conflicting reports cannot be reconciled, the panel must report inability. A generic vendor “Close” field alone does not prove the NOCP. The decline here rests on the wording defects above, rather than an unsupported claim that Nasdaq.com is the only possible evidence source.

Uncertainty and unanswered questions

The November 20 price, actual market opening, intervening corporate actions and eventual availability of consistent public reports are future facts. No YES, NO or INVALID outcome is established by this review. The original creation time and the author's preference between a fixed date and an earnings-relative date are not supplied. The proposed replacement makes a fixed-date policy choice and defines a new split baseline at the start of this review date; that baseline is not asserted to be the original creation time. It is a replacement for adoption before judging, not a retroactive interpretation of the original.

The decisive event page, transcript, calendar, hours and NOCP definition were retrieved. A direct Yahoo Finance history-page fetch returned HTTP 429; no conclusion here depends on successful live access to that page or on any future price. Source availability today does not guarantee availability after the deadline.

Corrected SQF

This proposed replacement retains the supplied metadata identifiers for traceability. Its explicit split interval replaces the missing creation-time anchor. It preserves the original two categories of INVALID; absent evidence or a missing price remains inability, not an invented third category.

§question
Will NVIDIA Corporation common stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) have a Nasdaq official regular-session closing price strictly above USD 220 per share for Friday, November 20, 2026?
§rule
The observation date is fixed at November 20, 2026, in America/New_York time. It does not move if NVIDIA changes its earnings schedule.

INVALID if either (a) the Nasdaq Stock Market holds no regular equity trading session at all on that date, or (b) NVDA begins trading on a split-adjusted or reverse-split-adjusted basis at any time from 2026-10-27T00:00:00Z through the end of that date's Nasdaq regular session, inclusive. A split announcement without effective split-adjusted trading in that interval does not trigger INVALID. Every effective split or reverse split in that interval triggers INVALID; no discretionary comparability assessment or threshold adjustment applies. These exceptions take precedence over the price comparison.

Otherwise, let P be NVDA's Nasdaq Official Closing Price (NOCP) for that date's regular session, in USD per share on the share basis in effect that day. YES if P > 220.00; NO if P <= 220.00. Use the session's official price, incorporating documented corrections available when the panel resolves. Do not use an intraday high, after-hours or overnight quote, dividend-adjusted return series, or a historical price restated for a later stock split. An early close alone does not trigger INVALID.

Establish the closing price and any exception from attributable public evidence, including exchange notices, issuer disclosures, public regulatory filings, documented market records, and reports from Nasdaq.com, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Google Finance or comparable established financial publishers. No particular website or proprietary feed is mandatory or sufficient merely by name. Researchers may use different sources and methods, but must establish the same price field, security, session and share basis. Repeated copies of one feed are not independent corroboration. Reconcile discrepancies by checking field definitions, session dates, adjustments and documented corrections; do not settle them by counting websites.

If no NOCP exists or sufficient public evidence cannot establish the price or the applicability of an exception, report inability instead of guessing. A halt, delisting, source outage or panel disagreement does not by itself establish YES, NO or INVALID. INVALID applies only to the two exceptions stated above.
resolution:resolved after the deadline by the IMD oracle panel from public, authoritative reports of the event; the panel must agree; report inability instead of guessing; INVALID only when the rule says so
§meta
format-version:seer-sqf-v1
use-case:uc3
deadline-utc:2026-11-20T21:30:00Z
deadline-unix:1795210200
why-it-matters:NVIDIA's share-price movements affect investors with direct holdings and funds exposed to its stock.
discovery-job:a4513de5-82e3-4037-879a-7c4e45233bb0
proposed-by:imd-seat-1794
discovery-candidate:1794-1
slot-x:220

Local verification and limits

Local checks verified UTF-8 report presence, exactly one verdict line, all three corrected SQF sections, retained metadata identifiers, agreement of both deadline representations, and the weekday and timezone calculations. These are author checks of the deliverable's structure and calculations. They provide no independent certification of the research or future outcome.