QUESTION 1 question: Will at least three distinct commercial ships be publicly confirmed as damaged by attacks in the Strait of Hormuz between October 23 at 10:00 UTC and October 26 at 03:00 UTC? rule: YES if public reports issued by the deadline by UKMTO, flag-state authorities, or vessel operators confirm qualifying damage to at least three distinct ships during the specified interval; NO if fewer than three qualify; INVALID only if public reporting archives are unavailable sufficiently to prevent verification. Missile, drone, gunfire and naval-mine damage count; duplicate reports and uncorroborated belligerent claims do not. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: Further shipping disruption could amplify the energy-supply shock and raise household fuel and food costs, a risk described in the linked AP report. why-uncertain: AP reports continuing tanker voyages despite attacks, while noting that recent Iranian attack claims lacked independent confirmation and some incidents go unreported. source: https://apnews.com/article/2abebce2fca2c085e0e0ee717e42cf28

QUESTION 2 question: Will Vance exceed the current forecast peak and reach maximum sustained winds of at least 115 knots between October 23 at 10:00 UTC and October 26 at 03:00 UTC? rule: YES if an NHC public advisory or forecast advisory published by the deadline assigns Vance an observed maximum sustained wind speed of at least 115 knots during the specified interval; NO if none does; INVALID only if NHC reporting and its public reproductions are unavailable sufficiently to prevent verification. Forecast wind speeds and retrospective revisions published after the deadline do not count. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: Stronger-than-forecast intensification would increase the hazard facing mariners and potentially Mexican coastal communities along the possible coastward tracks described by NHC. why-uncertain: NHC forecasts a 105-knot peak and favorable rapid intensification conditions, but also identifies cooler waters and increasing wind shear that could limit strengthening. source: https://prod-east-nhc.woc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2%2Bshtml/222037.shtml

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://apnews.com/article/2abebce2fca2c085e0e0ee717e42cf28 — did not return a page

I wrote two questions about the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It is the closest thing to a real-world black swan that resolves inside the window. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) report for week 42 says: "As of 18 October 2026, 9,552 confirmed cases and 4,602 confirmed deaths have been reported in the DRC." That is up 468 confirmed cases since the previous report, about 67 a day. At that pace the count reaches about 10,000 around 24–25 October, so the threshold is close to a coin flip (UKHSA wk 42).

The same report says the outbreak has reached two new countries. Kenya had 9 confirmed cases as of 20 October, all linked to one case imported from the DRC. Nigeria reported 1 confirmed case on 20 October, in a woman in Abuja who had recently been in Uganda. The World Health Organization (WHO) still treats the DRC outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern (UKHSA wk 39).

One other event falls in the window: Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October (Al Jazeera). I left it out because it is a scheduled election, not a black swan.

QUESTION 1 question: By 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z, will WHO, Africa CDC, the DRC Ministry of Health or UKHSA have published a cumulative count of 10,000 or more confirmed Ebola (Bundibugyo virus) cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo for the 2026 outbreak? rule: YES if, by the deadline, any of those bodies has published a cumulative count of 10,000 or more confirmed (not suspected) cases in the DRC for the outbreak declared on 15 May 2026; NO if every such report published by the deadline shows fewer than 10,000 confirmed cases; INVALID only if none of those bodies publishes any DRC case count between 2026-10-18 and the deadline. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: This is already the largest Bundibugyo virus outbreak on record and is spreading to other countries, so passing 10,000 confirmed cases would show it is still not under control. why-uncertain: The count was 9,552 on 18 October and rising by about 67 a day, so whether 10,000 appears in a published report by the deadline depends on the daily pace and on reporting delays. source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/outbreaks-under-monitoring-in-2026/outbreaks-under-monitoring-week-42-week-ending-16-october-2026

QUESTION 2 question: Between 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z and 2026-10-25T23:59:59Z, will a national health authority or WHO confirm a first Ebola case linked to the 2026 DRC Bundibugyo outbreak in any country other than the DRC, Uganda, Kenya or Nigeria? rule: YES if, within that period, WHO, Africa CDC or a national health ministry or public health agency publicly confirms, by laboratory test, at least one Ebola case linked to the 2026 DRC outbreak in a country with no previous confirmed case from this outbreak (anywhere other than the DRC, Uganda, Kenya and Nigeria); NO if no such confirmation is announced within that period; INVALID only if, before 2026-10-23, the outbreak has been officially reclassified so that cases can no longer be linked to it. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: Ebola reaching yet another country, through travel hubs like Nairobi and Abuja, would bring the risk of a cross-border epidemic closer to ordinary people in many countries. why-uncertain: Kenya and Nigeria confirmed cases only in the last few weeks, so spread to a further country in a three-day period is possible but far from certain. source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/outbreaks-under-monitoring-in-2026/outbreaks-under-monitoring-week-42-week-ending-16-october-2026

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/outbreaks-under-monitoring-in-2026/outbreaks-under-monitoring-week-42-week-ending-16-october-2026 — does not contain the quoted text
• https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/outbreaks-under-monitoring-in-2026/outbreaks-under-monitoring-week-39-week-ending-27-september-2026 — does not contain the quoted text

Both questions are about the 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic. It is the most serious ongoing threat I could confirm from live sources. The WHO declared it a public health emergency of international concern on 16 May 2026. CDC reports 9,735 confirmed cases and 4,690 deaths as of 21 October, across the DR Congo, Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria and France.

I looked at three other candidates and dropped them:

• Bird flu (H5N1): no new human cases were reported in early October, so the chance of a change in this short window is close to zero.
• Suspected plague in Irkutsk, Russia: it was never confirmed, and Russian officials say the situation is stable.
• Atlantic hurricanes: the search turned up no current storm reporting.

Question 1. In the DR Congo, confirmed cases went from about 9,233 on 15 October (a live tracker's figure) to 9,704 on 20 October, or roughly 80 to 95 a day. At that pace, the total through 24 October lands near 10,000. The threshold should be crossed if the pace holds, but not if reported cases slow down or are delayed.

Question 2. Kenya announced its first imported case on 6 October and its eighth on 18 October. CDC lists 9 as of 21 October. Reaching 11 by 25 October needs about one new case every two days, about the recent rate.

QUESTION 1 question: Will public health authorities report at least 10,000 cumulative confirmed Ebola (Bundibugyo virus) cases in the 2026 epidemic, counting all affected countries, for data through 24 October 2026, by 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z? rule: YES if, by the deadline, CDC's Ebola situation summary, a WHO report, or the DR Congo Ministry of Health (alone, or added to other countries' official counts) shows at least 10,000 cumulative confirmed cases with an as-of date on or before 24 October 2026; NO if every authoritative figure available by the deadline is below 10,000; INVALID only if no authoritative cumulative figure with an as-of date from 21 to 24 October 2026 is published by the deadline. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: Ebola with a fatality rate near 50% passing 10,000 confirmed cases would be a historic level for this virus species, and it raises the risk of spread to cities and across borders, affecting travel, health systems and aid. why-uncertain: The count stood at 9,735 on 21 October and is rising by about 70 to 95 a day, so it lands right around 10,000 for 24 October, depending on daily variation and reporting delays. source: https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html

QUESTION 2 question: Will Kenya's cumulative confirmed Ebola cases reach at least 11 by 2026-10-25T21:00:00Z? rule: YES if, by the deadline, Kenya's Ministry of Health, WHO, CDC, or a major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) citing Kenyan health officials reports a cumulative total of at least 11 confirmed Ebola cases in Kenya; NO if the highest such reported total by the deadline is 10 or fewer; INVALID only if Kenyan authorities and WHO/CDC publish no Kenyan case count at all between 21 and 25 October 2026. deadline-utc: 2026-10-25T21:00:00Z why-it-matters: Continued local spread in Nairobi, a major air hub for East Africa, would sharply raise the risk of Ebola moving beyond Central Africa to other continents. why-uncertain: Kenya went from its first case on 6 October to 8 on 18 October (CDC lists 9 as of 21 October), about one new case every two days, so whether two more are confirmed in the next four days is close to a coin flip. source: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/10/19/kenya-confirms-eighth-ebola-case-as-regional-outbreak-spreads

Sources:

• CDC Ebola situation summary
• Outbreak News Today, update through 20 October
• The Star / Reuters, Kenya's eighth case
• WHO Disease Outbreak News, Bundibugyo Ebola
• Al Jazeera, Irkutsk plague reports
• CDC global H5N1 summary

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html — did not return a page
• https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/10/19/kenya-confirms-eighth-ebola-case-as-regional-outbreak-spreads — does not contain the quoted text

QUESTION 1 question: Will the University of Michigan’s final October 2026 year-ahead inflation expectation exceed September’s 4.6%? rule: YES if the October final release reports median year-ahead inflation expectations above 4.6%; NO if it reports 4.6% or below; INVALID only if that figure is not publicly released by the deadline. deadline-utc: 2026-10-23T14:15:00Z why-it-matters: This tests persistence of the inflation shock associated with the Iran conflict, which Michigan links to mounting household cost-of-living frustration. why-uncertain: October’s preliminary estimate is 4.7%, only 0.1 percentage point above September, leaving the final revision consequential. source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?os=ios

QUESTION 2 question: Will Brazil’s electoral authority declare Lula the winner of the October 25 presidential runoff by October 26 at 03:00 UTC? rule: YES if Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court publicly declares Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva elected by the deadline; NO if it has not, including if counting remains incomplete; INVALID only if the runoff is canceled or postponed beyond October 25. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: The result could produce a geopolitical surprise affecting Brazil’s alignment with Washington and China, according to AP’s election reporting. why-uncertain: Reuters reports a 45%–44% Bolsonaro lead in the October 21 Quaest poll, within its two-percentage-point margin of error. source: https://whtc.com/2026/10/21/bolsonaros-lead-over-lula-narrows-ahead-brazil-runoff-quaest-poll-shows/

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?os=ios — did not return a page
• https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?os=ios — did not return a page
• https://apnews.com/article/c194f8965632c8af9bcc4e7a3716cd7c — did not return a page

QUESTION 1 question: Will October’s US flash services PMI be below 52.2 in the October 23, 2026 release? rule: YES if S&P Global’s initially published, seasonally adjusted October US flash services business activity index is below 52.2; NO if it is at least 52.2; INVALID only if no authoritative public release or report of that figure is available by the deadline. deadline-utc: 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z why-it-matters: A downside surprise would flag economic slowdown risk, a potential pathway to a wider shock affecting household jobs and income. why-uncertain: The live calendar lists a 52.2 forecast against 58.8 previously, leaving uncertainty about the size of the slowdown. source: https://forex.tradingcharts.com/economic_calendar/2026-10-23.html?code=USD

QUESTION 2 question: Will the University of Michigan’s final October 2026 US Consumer Sentiment Index be below its preliminary reading of 46.3? rule: YES if the initially published final October index is below 46.3; NO if it is at least 46.3; INVALID only if no authoritative public release or report of the final figure is available by the deadline. deadline-utc: 2026-10-23T14:15:00Z why-it-matters: Further deterioration would strengthen the household-confidence warning signal for the same economic-shock scenario. why-uncertain: The preliminary reading is 46.3, while the final survey incorporates additional interviews whose effect remains unknown. source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ — did not return a page

QUESTION 1 question: Will Moody’s downgrade France’s long-term sovereign credit rating below Aa3 by October 24, 2026? rule: YES if Moody’s publicly announces a downgrade below Aa3 between October 23 at 10:00 UTC and the deadline, corroborated by its public announcement, Agence France Trésor, or public news reports; NO if no such downgrade is announced; INVALID only if the scheduled October 23 review is formally postponed beyond the deadline. deadline-utc: 2026-10-24T00:00:00Z why-it-matters: A downgrade could amplify sovereign-debt stress, putting pressure on borrowing costs and public finances. why-uncertain: France’s negative outlook signals downgrade risk, but its current Aa3 rating leaves both a downgrade and continued retention plausible. source: https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings

QUESTION 2 question: Will the University of Michigan’s final October 2026 year-ahead inflation expectation exceed its preliminary reading of 4.7%? rule: YES if the final October release publicly available by the deadline reports year-ahead inflation expectations above 4.7%; NO if it reports 4.7% or below; INVALID only if the final release or this measure is unavailable by the deadline. deadline-utc: 2026-10-23T14:05:00Z why-it-matters: A further increase would flag inflation becoming more entrenched, threatening household purchasing power and affordable borrowing. why-uncertain: The preliminary estimate rose to 4.7%, but the final survey can revise that estimate upward or downward. source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?os=ios

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings — did not return a page
• https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?os=ios — did not return a page
• https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/?os=ios — did not return a page

QUESTION 1 question: Will Flávio Bolsonaro be publicly projected as the winner of Brazil’s presidential runoff by 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z? rule: YES if Brazil’s electoral court declares Bolsonaro elected or both AP and Reuters project him as the winner by the deadline; NO if neither condition is met by the deadline; INVALID only if the runoff is postponed or cancelled. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: The next president will nominate at least three Supreme Court justices, giving this election lasting consequences for Brazilians’ institutions and rights. why-uncertain: Bolsonaro led the first round 47% to 45%, but recent polling describes a very close runoff. source: https://apnews.com/article/d80a6c41edf9c9e0ac5cfd0afeb53ed7

QUESTION 2 question: Will Vance exceed its currently forecast peak intensity by reaching maximum sustained winds of at least 115 knots between 2026-10-23T10:00:00Z and 2026-10-26T02:00:00Z? rule: YES if an operational NHC advisory published by the deadline reports observed maximum sustained winds of at least 115 knots for Vance at a valid time inside the specified interval; NO if none does; INVALID only if public operational intensity reports covering the interval are unavailable. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: Vance’s forecast includes life-threatening surf and rip currents along southern and southwestern Mexico, making its strengthening relevant to coastal communities. why-uncertain: NHC forecasts a 105-knot peak but explicitly identifies substantial intensity uncertainty, including possible limits from cooler water and increased wind shear. source: https://prod-east-nhc.woc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2%2Bshtml/222037.shtml

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://apnews.com/article/d80a6c41edf9c9e0ac5cfd0afeb53ed7 — did not return a page
• https://apnews.com/article/952168b83c334f6a0c66a1540f1adf76 — did not return a page
• https://prod-east-nhc.woc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2%2Bshtml/222037.shtml — does not contain the quoted text
• https://marine.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=EP2&product=TCP&site=GUM — did not return a page

QUESTION 1 question: Will Vance exceed the current NHC forecast peak and reach maximum sustained winds of at least 115 knots by October 26, 2026, at 02:00 UTC? rule: YES if an NHC public advisory published between October 23 at 10:00 UTC and the deadline reports Vance’s current maximum sustained winds at 115 knots or higher; NO if none does; INVALID only if public advisory records for that interval are unavailable. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T02:00:00Z why-it-matters: Unexpected additional strengthening would increase the potential danger facing people preparing along Mexico’s coast, toward which some forecast models steer Vance (NHC). why-uncertain: NHC forecasts a peak of 105 knots, but describes favorable strengthening conditions followed by uncertain limiting influences (NHC). source: https://prod-east-nhc.woc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2%2Bshtml/222037.shtml

QUESTION 2 question: Will Brazil’s electoral authority publicly identify Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as mathematically elected in the October 25, 2026, presidential runoff by October 26 at 03:00 UTC? rule: YES if Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court publicly identifies Lula as mathematically elected by the deadline; NO if it has not, including an unresolved count; INVALID only if the presidential runoff is cancelled or postponed beyond October 25. deadline-utc: 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z why-it-matters: The outcome could change Brazil’s relationship with the United States and the future of the Amazon, making it a consequential political surprise risk (Axios). why-uncertain: Recent polling describes a tight contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro (AP). source: https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/radio/2026/Outubro/brasil-voltara-as-urnas-em-25-de-outubro

Sources offered but not confirmed by this machine:

• https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/radio/2026/Outubro/brasil-voltara-as-urnas-em-25-de-outubro — did not return a page
• https://apnews.com/article/afb609314dc4d1c369274c0facd1a5a6 — did not return a page
• https://www.axios.com/2026/10/02/brazil-election-lula-flavio-bolsonaro-trump-amazon — did not return a page