Category: crypto. Data taken 2026-10-17T13:16:51.352Z from Polymarket order books.

Task: find markets in the table whose price is wrong (mispriced) and recommend at most 8 trades for a bankroll of 25 USD (pUSD). Returning no trades is a valid answer.

Prices are probabilities from 0 to 1. Columns: row|marketId|event|ends|question|outcome A/outcome B|A bid|A ask|B bid|B ask|last|24h volume $|liquidity $|$ at A ask+2c|min shares

Markets: m1|5742115|-|2026-10-17|Bitcoin Up or Down on October 17?|Up/Down|0.77|0.78|0.22|0.23|0.77|147516|38919|6772|5

m2|5506691|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.03|0.036|0.964|0.97|0.031|80210|36474|332|5

m3|5593519|-|2026-10-19|Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 12-18?|Yes/No|0.029|0.03|0.97|0.971|0.029|52362|49479|599|5

m4|701496|-|2027-01-01|Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?|Yes/No|0.2|0.21|0.79|0.8|0.21|47763|74491|3959|5

m5|5742123|-|2026-10-17|Ethereum Up or Down on October 17?|Up/Down|0.28|0.3|0.7|0.72|0.37|46701|32350|1397|5

m6|5170740|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?|Yes/No|0.23|0.24|0.76|0.77|0.24|41160|67769|3054|5

m7|5564853|-|2026-10-18|Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 18?|Yes/No|0.956|0.958|0.042|0.044|0.958|32989|38689|679|5

m8|5506667|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.961|0.971|0.029|0.039|0.981|25232|25706|4533|5

m9|5170741|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?|Yes/No|0.12|0.13|0.87|0.88|0.12|19780|56800|1456|5

m10|5506668|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.95|0.96|0.04|0.05|0.95|18165|23156|5383|5

m11|5506670|-|2026-10-17|Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.024|0.044|0.956|0.976|0.04|17887|22559|236|5

m12|1163699|-|2027-01-01|Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?|Yes/No|0.053|0.058|0.942|0.947|0.054|17536|279908|11075|5

m13|5610574|-|2026-10-19|Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 19?|Yes/No|0.66|0.67|0.33|0.34|0.67|16907|32632|2896|5

m14|5794264|-|2026-10-18|Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.029|0.03|0.97|0.971|0.026|16697|23589|250|5

m15|701495|-|2027-01-01|Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?|Yes/No|0.08|0.09|0.91|0.92|0.09|15647|102130|1411|5

m16|5170734|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?|Yes/No|0.15|0.17|0.83|0.85|0.17|15357|56269|1036|5

m17|5794238|-|2026-10-18|Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.021|0.031|0.969|0.979|0.024|15292|24352|248|5

m18|5692175|-|2026-10-19|Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 12-18?|Yes/No|0.031|0.049|0.951|0.969|0.05|15272|39901|508|5

m19|5170733|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?|Yes/No|0.08|0.09|0.91|0.92|0.1|13781|76975|5321|5

m20|5610602|-|2026-10-19|Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 19?|Yes/No|0.05|0.06|0.94|0.95|0.07|13655|37542|488|5

m21|5794256|-|2026-10-18|Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 17?|Yes/No|0.37|0.38|0.62|0.63|0.38|13446|17747|2105|5

m22|3387867|-|2027-01-01|Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?|Yes/No|0.16|0.17|0.83|0.84|0.16|11941|72175|731|5

m23|1144471|-|2027-01-01|Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?|Yes/No|0.029|0.03|0.97|0.971|0.03|11546|89263|2028|5

m24|5170739|-|2026-11-01|Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?|Yes/No|0.42|0.43|0.57|0.58|0.43|11442|61444|3418|5

Rules:

• Use only markets from the table. marketId is the second column, copied exactly.
• side YES buys outcome A at its ask; side NO buys outcome B at its ask.
• fairPrice: your probability (0-1) that the side you buy wins. estimatedEdge = fairPrice - ask of that side. Recommend only when estimatedEdge >= 0.03 after the spread.
• Look for: news or base rates the price ignores; related markets that contradict each other; multi-outcome events whose YES asks sum far from 1 (listed under Events).
• recommendedShares: whole shares, cost = shares x ask. Size with quarter-Kelly, at most 20% of the bankroll per market and 60% in total, never below the market's min shares.
• confidence: low, medium or high. reasoning: at most 300 characters, name the evidence. Output: write exactly one file, artifacts/recommendations.json, containing only this JSON (UTF-8, no comments, no markdown):

{"analysisId":"7717170c-5482-4a85-a429-56e1a1d185fc","recommendations":[{"marketId":"123","question":"copied from the table","tokenId":"","side":"YES","fairPrice":0.55,"recommendedShares":100,"estimatedEdge":0.12,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"short evidence"}]}

Leave tokenId empty: Keel fills it from its own snapshot.