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You are a crypto perpetual futures trader.daed1c67

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Produce one trade decision for a player in Paper Clash, a game where players win map tiles with leveraged trades on PaperTrade. The player has chosen to let you make every trading decision. The goal: take the unclaimed tile P8 (Forest). Any net gain takes it. If it closes below that the player keeps the PnL but not the tile, so aim to clear the line, and make the player as much as you reasonably can.

Fixed constraints

  • Market: "BTC" or "ETH" perpetual (BTC, ETH). Pick the one with the better setup right now.

  • Direction: exactly one of "long" or "short".

  • Margin: $20 (the player chose it; you don't).

  • Leverage: an integer from 50 to 1000 inclusive (the tile's minimum, and PaperTrade's $1,000-$10M position size).

  • Take-profit: the price move in your favor, in basis points of price from the actual entry (1 bp = 0.01%), not return on margin. It must clear the line: 50x → bust 195 bp, take-profit ≥ 1 bp

     525x → bust 14 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.5 bp

1000x → bust 5 bp, take-profit ≥ 0.4 bp

  • Stop-loss: a price move against the position in bp, smaller than the bust distance, or null to hold to liquidation (liquidation is then the stop).

  • No time limit: the trade stays open until the take-profit, the stop-loss (or liquidation) or the player closes it, however long that takes. There is no funding, so holding costs nothing.

  • The trade opens a few minutes after you answer (it is queued behind your report), so base the exits on moves from the actual entry, not on your quoted mid.

Papertrade execution

Entry and exit fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid ((best bid + best ask) / 2): no spread, slippage, funding or fee on notional.

Liquidation: the position is liquidated when the mid moves against it by about 10000 / leverage − 5 bp, and the whole margin is lost.

Winning closes are haircut (losses are not): a 0.2 bp deadband comes off the move, the gain is scaled by 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598)) (move as a fraction after the deadband; BTC parameters, ETH is similar), then a 2% win fee. The keep is ~49% at 3 bp, ~61% at 5 bp, ~72% at 10 bp, ~80% at 20 bp, ~85% at 50 bp: tiny take-profits are heavily taxed.

How to decide

The decision is yours. Pull the market data below, and look up anything else that helps (news, scheduled macro events, liquidation levels, other exchanges' flow). Be decisive: always return a trade. Express doubt through confidence, leverage and the exits, not by refusing. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move; a stop-loss saves part of the margin but can stop out a trade that would have recovered.

Market data (Hyperliquid public API, no auth)

POST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with Content-Type: application/json. Times are Unix ms. For each of BTC and ETH:

  1. Candles: {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":,"endTime":}}, and 5m over 6 h, 15m over 24 h. Fields: t, T, o/h/l/c (strings), v, n. Oldest first.
  2. Context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"} → [meta, ctxs]; ctxs[index of the coin in meta.universe] has markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly), openInterest, dayNtlVlm, prevDayPx.
  3. Book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5} → levels[0] bids, levels[1] asks ({px, sz, n}, best first). mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2. Also useful: {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"}, {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":}.

Useful metrics, in bp of price so they compare with the bust distance and exits: how often recent 1m windows moved the bust distance against a position before the take-profit in its favor; per-candle adverse excursion; realized volatility over 15/30/60 min and whether it is expanding; distance from VWAP and 1m/5m EMAs; momentum agreement across 1m/5m/15m; trade flow and book imbalance near the mid; funding and premium; open interest vs price; the 24 h range; scheduled events in the next hour.

Output

Return ONLY one JSON object, no fences or commentary. Write it to artifacts/report.md (output "report"), not just the final reply. Exactly these keys:

{

"market": "BTC" | "ETH",

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 50-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in bp from entry>,

"stop_loss_bp": <number smaller than bust_distance_bp, or null to hold to liquidation>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 5>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, if the take-profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 time you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 plain sentences: the evidence for the market and direction, and why this leverage and these exits fit the volatility and the line to beat>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences: what would most likely stop it out or liquidate it>"

}

Use JSON numbers (and null for no stop-loss).

Published · Report

Market
ETH
Direction
short
Leverage
100
Take profit bp
35
Stop loss bp
55
Bust distance bp
95
Expected net return on margin pct
29.1
Confidence
0.55
Regime
trending_down
Entry mid
2,309.45
Data time utc
2026-10-26T20:41:47Z

Reasoning

Facts from the Hyperliquid API at 20:41 UTC: ETH is down 154 bp over 24 h versus 75 bp for BTC, sits 54 bp below the 24 h VWAP (2321.9), below the 9/21 EMAs on 1m, 5m and 15m (all sloping down), and at 0.29 of the 24 h range; the perp premium is negative (mark below oracle) on both coins and funding is near zero, so holding costs nothing. Inference: momentum agrees across timeframes and ETH is the weaker of the two, so a trend-following short is the better setup; over the last 60 minutes a short with a 10 bp target reached it from 51 of 61 one-minute entries with no bust at leverage up to 200x, while 1000x shorts were liquidated 16-37 times out of 61, so the 5 bp bust distance is far inside the 4.6 bp per-minute realized volatility. 100x gives a 95 bp bust (2331, above VWAP and above the last 15m bounce high of 2331) while a 35 bp take-profit targets a retest of the area just above the 2300 round number and the 24 h low at 2292.6, and at 35 bp the win haircut keeps about 84% (29.1% net on margin, about $5.82 on $20). The 55 bp stop sits at VWAP, where the downtrend thesis is wrong, and saves 45% of the margin instead of holding to liquidation. Uncertainty: no dated news for today was found, so the drift assumption rests on price data alone; under a pure random walk the haircut makes this slightly negative expected value, so the edge depends on the downtrend continuing.

Risks

A short squeeze or Asia-session bounce back through the 5m/15m EMA21 (2315-2318) to VWAP would hit the 55 bp stop (loss of $11); price hovering at the 2300 round number without printing the 35 bp move could leave the trade open through the FOMC decision on Oct 28, when volatility expands in both directions.

file
report.md · 2 KB

Work

  1. Posted3 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #9005 files changed

    Done. The trade decision is written to artifacts/report.md as the single JSON object, left untracked for upload.

    Decision: ETH short, 100x, take-profit 35 bp, stop-loss 55 bp

    FieldValue
    Entry mid (20:41:47 UTC)2309.45
    Bust distance95 bp
    Expected net return if TP hits29.1% of margin, about $5.82
    Confidence0.55
    Regimetrending_down

    Evidence from the Hyperliquid API. ETH is down 154 bp over 24 h against 75 bp for BTC, sits below VWAP and all 1m/5m/15m EMAs, and trades in the lower third of its 24 h range. The perp premium is negative on both coins and funding is near zero. Over the last hour, a short with a 10 bp target reached it from 51 of 61 one-minute entries with no bust at 200x or lower, while 1000x shorts were liquidated repeatedly because the 5 bp bust sits inside the 4.6 bp per-minute realized volatility.

    Why these exits. The 95 bp bust at 100x sits above VWAP and the last 15m bounce high, so routine noise cannot liquidate it. The 35 bp target lands just above the 2300 round number and the 24 h low. The 55 bp stop sits at VWAP, where the short thesis is wrong, and saves $9 of the $20 instead of holding to liquidation.

    Uncertainty, stated in the report. No dated news for today surfaced in a web search, so the drift assumption rests on price data alone. Under a pure random walk the win haircut makes this slightly negative expected value, so the edge depends on the downtrend continuing. No macro releases fall in the next hour; the FOMC decision is Wednesday Oct 28.

    Repository. Committed README.md (question, evidence links, limits), .gitignore, and the three reproducible scripts under tools/. The pre-existing untracked dotfiles in the workspace were left alone.

    Sources: Smartcalendars US economic calendar, Guggenheim 2026 economic calendar, Thrive in Markets week of Oct 26

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